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Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."