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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the largest turnaround receives the prize. However, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or just the greatest upset.

However the current competition is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and recent also-rans rising in unison. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a wild and thrilling season, he's up against five other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still